Predicting The Real Estate Future

It's funny how so many people seem to think that they can predict the future. It's not like the stand up and shout, "I can predict the future," but the actions indicate they think they can. Here are a few examples. It wasn't long ago that gasoline was selling for more than $3 per gallon. Most thought that it would go higher. If you had asked 100 people to tell you what they THOUGHT gas prices might be in late October, perhaps no one would have said, "$2.25 per gallon." But that's what I paid for regular gas yesterday. We were wrong.

The Fed has raised the benchmark interest rate 17 times in the last could of years. Prime Rate is now 8.25% up from 3% when it started. As it relates to mortgage interest rates, many pundits predicted that rates were headed to 8%. We were wrong again.

After peaking in the 6.75% range in July, 30 year fixed rates are actually available under 6% today. Bottom line, mortgage rates are not much higher than they were during the frenzy of a couple of years ago. Houses are affordable at these rates.

So what's the point? Too many people use their inaccurate "feelings" about the future as a reason – read "excuse" – for sitting on their hands and doing nothing.  In my view, this paralysis is at the root of the current malaise in the real estate market.

Don't try to predict the future. If you want to buy a home, don't get caught up in predicting how much, if any, your home might decline in value. You'll be wrong. You're in it for the long haul, so who cares? Buy it! If you need to refinance, don't predict rates. You'll be wrong. If it makes sense, do it!

Bottom line, there are only two kinds of people who predict the future: those who are wrong and those who do not know that they are wrong.