I was chatting with a client the other day and he tried to get me to make some predictions about where interest rates were headed. Of course, I don't have any more ability to predict the future than you do, but he didn't want to accept my protestations. He wanted answers. So I told him that what was going on was a case of "maybe, maybe not." Here's what I meant by that.
In Ye Olden Days I think that it was easier to predict interest rates because you only had to keep track of a few of variables, the most important of which was the anticipated rate of inflation. When the inflation rate was rising, the model everyone used said that interest rates would rise too. That meant that the interest rate you could get on an investment minus the rate of inflation still yielded an acceptable return.
There were some other variables here too, like the current growth rate for the Gross National Product, the projected government surplus or deficit, and the level of the national debt. But in a way these all tracked back to their potential impact on the rate of inflation.
Today things are a lot more complicated. For openers, we have a world economy where the economies of all the other countries are all intertwined with ours. So it isn't just our rate of inflation, still an important variable, but how our rate of inflation compares with that of other countries. Is that important? Maybe, maybe not.
And then there is the old National Debt issue. Today, Japan and China own more than a trillion dollars of our Treasury securities. Indeed the $159 billion economic stimulus package just enacted will largely be financed by Japan and China so American consumers can go out and buy more of their toys and electronics. Is that important? Maybe, maybe not.
This is also related to the trade balance or, more properly, the trade imbalance. In the early 1970s our balance of trade went from positive to negative and I used to worry about that. Of course, the imbalance was only a couple of billion dollars a year. Now, it's a couple of billion dollars every day! Is that important? Maybe, maybe not.
Another factor is the exchange rate between the dollar and the currencies of our trading partners. It used to be that our dollar was worth a lot more than the Euro, the British Pound, and the Yen, for example. Today it's just the opposite. That is obvious to anyone who has traveled to Europe where everything is horribly expensive. When you whip out a bunch of dollars, they don't buy much. Is that important? Maybe, maybe not.
And then there is the fact that we still have to import a gazillion barrels of oil every day. It isn't $3 per barrel oil either, or $10, or even $50 oil. It's $100 per barrel. Of course, that's probably related to the fact that the oil producers aren't all that keen on collecting a bunch of devalued dollars any more. They want something that is worth something and although the price of oil is commonly traded on the basis of dollars per barrel, you can bet that when the value of the dollar declines, the price of oil in dollars goes up. Is that important? Maybe, maybe not.
The only reason why the rates are jumping around and why the stock market is going up and down by 200 or 300 points every day is that no one, especially all the experts in New York and Washington and London and Paris and Singapore Hong Kong and Tokyo has any more of an idea about what it all means than I do.
This is going to come as bitter medicine to some who have particularly strong feelings about something they think is going to happen in the future. In spite of how strongly you feel about something, no matter how thorough your analysis, you simply do not have any ability to predict what might happen tomorrow or next week or next month. The more that people think that they have found a pattern and can predict the future, the more expensive the lesson will be when reality finally rears its head.
Still think I'm wrong? Who gave Barack Obama or John McCain a chance just a couple of months ago?
All of us, you included, have to get used to the idea that today is today and you have some options available today. If you have to make a decision today, look at the facts as you see them today and go for it. Good advice? Well, I hope it's better than, "Maybe, maybe not."